Gaming Friday: Player Progression... or Regression?

I've been super interested in this concept lately, I guess driven by the fact that within the span of a week we got to see Michael Vick and Brett Favre return to Madden 10 after what's likely for each of them to be an offseason that wasn't exactly spent blowing people away in the weight room. It came a little stronger to me after I watched Favre play last night. If by play you mean drop back, look a little frantic, and look completely out-of-sync with his receivers. Granted he's practiced for 2.5 days. But that's exactly the point.

I came across this analysis of Favre's ratings on the Sporting News. It goes into details on how the Madden team feels Favre's offseason regimen with the local high school team has impacted his game. Now, granted, this is solely a rating at launch - they will tweak these ratings through the season... and if he looks like he did against the Chiefs, tweaking will be a bit more drastic.

But I wanted to contrast that against what I read here about NBA Live 10. As you know, I'm a big fan of Dynamic DNA (see my post here). But my fan-crush on Dynamic DNA is not based on where we are today, but on where we could be soon. And this read made me feel like soon is coming faster than I thought. NBA Live 10 will feature roughly 70% of player performance that is based on real life data, not judgment calls. (I don't know what percentage NBA Live 09 was, but I'd guess it was much lower).

So, here's the big question I have... how can we take data - that looks at how players' games advance or regress based on things like age, injury, playing time, system they play in, and coaching and end up with a more scientific adjustment for players in each sport? I'm guessing Favre's awareness should have regressed a little. But that's just a guess. (Then again, is he really that aware of anything beyond his own needs?... Sorry repressed Packer fan comment there). If we can get to that point, we can actually see gaming as a tool to help players maintain or advance. And for players to see that there games could get maximized in the right system.

For now, I will stand by, excited to see how science is going to make NBA Live 10 much better!